Three weeks to go in the Super 14 and once again the top of the ladder is packed with teams trying to make the top four with only the Crusaders basically guaranteed to make it.
The Tahs bonus point win on Saturday means they can breathe a little easier but not much. While the Sharks have lost a few on the trot the Chiefs, Stormers and Hurricanes are all in hot form and have a nicer run home than the Aussies.
You’d expect the Sharks to go down to the Crusaders on Friday night, but then they have a home game against the Cheetahs and the Chiefs. Sitting on 32 points (3rd place) you couldn’t dismiss them but one win from three won’t be not be enough to cut it.
NSW have last year’s winners the Bulls, Cape Town Stormers and then the Queensland Reds all away. NSW will really be eyeing the match against the Bulls as a must win. While NSW are a much better side than the Reds the Waratahs record against the banana benders ain’t great. Five points out of ten in South Africa and a win against the Reds would mean the semis for the Tahs. A home semi is still a possibility but they definitely have a lot of work to do.
The Wellington Hurricanes are also in the hunt outside the four on 31 points. They have the ordinary Lions and then the Force at home and then an away game in Auckland. You’d think Hurricanes would be a sure thing to get up over the first two and a good chance against the Blues. Throw in a couple of bonus points and they are well in contention for 2nd or 3rd.
The Stormers too have a good run home with games against the Brumbies, Waratahs and Lions. All three games are very winnable for the side with 7 bonus points. Like the Hurricanes they are on 31 points and a couple of more bonus points could mean they’ll be forcing Hurricans/Tahs/Chiefs/Sharks to Cape Town in a couple of weeks.
Chiefs have a tough game against the Force in Perth although they are favourites. They finish with the Lions and Sharks in South Africa and while they’ll beat the Lions it could take enough out of them to hurt them in the last game against Natal. Their shock win over Canterbury means they should be seriously considered in the hunt for this years Super 14.
Brumbies, Blues and Force won’t make it this year and will be playing for pride in the next three weeks.
The Crusaders will easily beat the Sharks, Reds and Highlanders and easily finish first with daylight second.
It’ll all come down to the last round, whether Wellington can get over Auckland, the Tahs beat the Reds like they should and the last game of the regular season (possibly for fourth spot) between the Sharks and Chiefs.
Bring it on!
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